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Song of the month: “Land of Confusion" by Genesis
The global economy continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, but investors are now operating in a very complex environment. Economic growth remains positive, investment in technology and artificial intelligence is accelerating, and the earnings of international companies remain broadly solid. US markets are at all time highs, with an extreme concentration in technology, and elevated valuation levels. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and concerns over energy security are gradually reshaping the global macroeconomic landscape.
In these conditions, it's hard to find a better soundtrack than Genesis' “Land of Confusion”. Released forty years ago, the track already described a world where uncertainty, power struggles and the feeling of losing one's bearings mingled with the hope of change.
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Key takeaways
U.S. stock market at all-time highs.
10 year U.S. interest rates around 4.75%.
The Strait of Hormuz unlikely to return to the pre-Iran war situation.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1982.
Bitcoin's strongest monthly return in more than a year.
With a net return of +4.52% (year to 31 August 2026) the Alpian balanced portfolios slightly outperformed our benchmark (+4.36%).
What happened with equities
Global equity markets extended their advance despite a challenging backdrop of persistent inflation, rising long-term bond yields, and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. market reached new all-time highs during the month, supported by strong earnings results and continued optimism surrounding technology-related investments. The SMI was very slightly down (-0.40% for the month).
Artificial intelligence remained a dominant market theme, with investors closely monitoring whether massive investments in AI infrastructure would translate into future earnings growth. At the same time, higher Treasury yields created periodic volatility, as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation.
Geopolitical concerns resurfaced toward month-end as tensions involving Iran intensified, pushing oil prices higher and renewing concerns about global energy security and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Overall, August was characterized by renewed strength in technology stocks, resilient earnings, and investor confidence that economic growth and innovation could outweigh the challenges posed by inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty.
What happened with bonds
Government bond yields continued to climb during the month, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ending August around 4.75%. Investors grew increasingly concerned that higher oil prices, stemming from tensions involving Iran and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could add to inflationary pressures and keep interest rates elevated for longer.
However, the Global High Yield and Global Bonds indices posted positive returns. Robust coupon income and continued investor demand for credit offset the negative impact of rising Treasury rates.
What happened with commodities, currencies, and digital assets
Commodity markets were driven primarily by energy prices and geopolitical developments, Brent crude held above USD 90 per barrel. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 290 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982 and just 10% above its technical operational limit (the salt caverns used for oil storage could collapse inward if fluid levels were to fall too low), highlighting reduced emergency supply buffers amid ongoing disruptions to global oil flows. Gold also performed strongly (+9.70%), benefiting from persistent geopolitical uncertainty, elevated government debt levels, and demand for defensive assets.
The Euro ended the month at CHF 0.939, remaining close to its highest levels of the year, while the US dollar ended at CHF 0.808.
Bitcoin rallied strongly (+25.40%), benefiting from renewed investor optimism, growing institutional participation, and sustained demand for digital assets. Fears surrounding the U.S. fiscal trajectory and the potential weakening of the dollar reinforced the appeal of Bitcoin, which recorded its strongest monthly return in more than a year, and materially outperformed both global equities and fixed-income markets.
«Land of Confusion» may well remain the fitting soundtrack for the markets for some time yet. But even in a confusing environment, certain developments deserve to be highlighted.
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Alpian: Our portfolio performance
In the year to 31 August 2026, Alpian's discretionary Balanced Portfolios delivered an average net return of +4.52%, slightly outperforming our benchmark, the Performance Watcher Mid-Risk Index, which stood at +4.36%.*
Building a financial strategy is not about chasing short-term hype. It is about creating a robust, personal design that stands the test of time.
Have questions about your investment strategy? Our wealth advisors are here to help.
*Performance of the Alpian Balanced Portfolio compared with the PW Mid-Risk Index (31 December 2025 to 31 August 2026). The average performance of Swiss banks for a balanced strategy is represented by the Performance Watcher Mid-Risk Index. For Alpian, we display the average performance of all types of discretionary portfolios following a balanced strategy (between 40 and 60% equity allocation). All performance figures reflect the aggregate time-weighted return, net of fees, across all Alpian clients with a balanced strategy. Individual investment results may vary due to factors such as investment timing and specific strategy choices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content of this publication is provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice.
Performance should always be assessed together with risk. Performance Watcher adjusts returns for volatility and compares the resulting risk-adjusted performance with that of the benchmark.
Investments involve risks, including the possible loss of invested capital. The value of investments can fluctuate and there is no guarantee of making profits or avoiding losses. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Potential investors should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Please read the full risk warnings and other relevant documents on our website before investing.
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