Market analysis March 2025

After a turbulent April in the financial markets, you might be asking yourself—like many investors—whether the old adage “Sell in May and go away” still holds true. In our Market at a Glance section, we dive into that very question.

Unexpected events often force us to re-evaluate our investments. That’s why, in our Demystification section, you’ll find a practical decision map to help you understand when to trust your instincts—and when it’s wiser to stay the course.

Finally, we’re excited to share some great news. The SheWealth movement is gaining momentum across Switzerland! This month, our vibrant community of financially engaged women is coming to Romandie. If you’re curious and want to be part of it, you’ll find more details below.

Happy reading!

The market at a glance: Should I Stay or Should I Go

Song of the month: “Should I Stay or Should I Go" by The Clash

• April was a month to remember: after a brutal start, financial markets managed to rebound.

• Equity markets—especially in the U.S.—took a sharp hit. So far, Trump’s strategy is generating more noise than clarity.

• Bond markets weren’t spared either, with yields flirting with risky levels.

• Commodity markets were shaken, but gold continued to shine, and cryptocurrencies held up surprisingly well.

• As markets recover, the big question remains: is it time to sell—or should we stay the course and focus on the long term?

I love musical paradoxes. Here’s one for the ages: take a rock band whose very name evokes conflict—The Clash—on the verge of breaking up (in 1982), and ask them to write a song about emotional tension and indecision. What are the odds it becomes a timeless anthem? And yet, here we are with "Should I Stay or Should I Go."

It just goes to show: sometimes, the best can emerge from the worst situations. In a period of emotional tension on the financial markets, this song feels like the perfect soundtrack for our newsletter.

April began in panic mode, then shifted into a rebound. Now, as we enter May—a month notoriously tied to the saying "Sell in May and go away"—the question arises: should we follow that advice? Should we stay invested, or is this rebound just another chance to step away while we can?

Let's first come back on the recent markets developments.

What happened with equities

We hadn’t seen this level of market uncertainty since the COVID crisis—an event that, as we've argued, shares several traits with the recent tariff storm: sudden, global, and exogenous.

As a reminder (in case you really needed one), Donald Trump—by his own account—is trying to fix the mess left by his predecessors and reshape global trade through assertive measures. The result? A strategy that morphed into a trade war, leaving investors confused and sending equity indices sharply lower in early April.

As we anticipated, the White House’s bold strategy soon ran into resistance, giving investors a chance to catch their breath. Equity markets rebounded toward the end of the month—not quite back to February levels, but enough to spark a glimmer of hope. (As I write this, global equities remain down 10% year-to-date in CHF terms.)

But is this hope misplaced? Can equity markets rally further?

Let’s start with what I’m fairly certain of: even if a few deals are struck, Trump’s disruptive methods are not ending anytime soon. So it’s safe to say that a certain level of volatility is here to stay—at least until investors fully adjust.

Now, onto what is—at this stage—half fact, half hope.

Factually, investors always return to the economic data in times of uncertainty. The ongoing earnings season has given us an opportunity to take the economy’s pulse. So far, the financial results posted by companies across the globe have been encouraging, even outperforming expectations. That’s the factual part.

The hopeful part? Whether companies can continue to hold. The earnings reflect the past quarter and don’t yet capture the future impact of tariffs. Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis also show that the U.S. economy contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2025. Still, unless presidential decisions tip the world into a global recession, there’s no reason to abandon hope. We've also seen signs of resilience elsewhere—Germany, for instance, has shown growth, and governments appear increasingly ready to support their economies.

What is clearly hope for now—but not necessarily utopian: the Fed stepping in with more support, Europe showing signs of greater unity, and the world adapting to new trade alliances, even if that means moving forward without the U.S.

So, while we welcome the breath of fresh air brought by this rebound, we’re not claiming the chaos is behind us. Not yet.

What happened with bonds

Bond markets weren’t spared from the Trump storm in April—although, by the end of the month, they managed to finish on a positive note. Once again, the emotional ride for investors was a rollercoaster.

At first, the uncertainty seemed like good news for bondholders. Many hoped the U.S. central bank would be forced to cut interest rates to support the economy. That hope briefly drove bond prices higher, as falling rates tend to boost bond values.

But Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell quickly poured cold water on that optimism. He made it clear that rate cuts weren’t on the table as long as inflation remained a threat to the U.S. economy.

To make matters worse, Trump doubled down on his aggressive trade stance, which started to shake confidence in the bond market. This isn't a market the average investor watches closely—but when it wobbles, it matters. The biggest financial crises often begin with shocks to either the banking system or the bond market.

And the U.S. government debt market—especially Treasury bonds—is the bedrock of global finance. It keeps money flowing, underpins monetary systems, and influences business around the world. It’s a structure you don’t want to see rattled.

Thankfully, after some turbulence, stability has started to return. But this remains a key risk we’re keeping a close eye on.

That said, we believe central banks could eventually become more supportive of the economy. If that happens, bondholders may continue to see gains. In other words—it might not be time to let go now.

What happened with commodities, currencies, and digital assets

When there’s movement in equity and bond markets, other asset classes tend to follow.

The potential for a trade war shook commodity markets—but continued to boost gold, the classic safe-haven asset investors turn to in times of uncertainty.

Cryptocurrencies—at least the major ones—held up surprisingly well. Bitcoin gained 14.8% over the month and is once again flirting with the $100,000 mark.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar continued to weaken. The Swiss franc gained strength, which isn’t ideal for the Swiss economy. It's another hot potato that the Swiss National Bank—already running low on ammunition—will have to handle.

In short, most investors are probably relieved that April is behind us. After a brutal start that hit portfolios hard, markets managed to rebound. Some may see this as an opportunity to lock in profits.

While we still expect turbulence as long as Trump pushes forward with his agenda, we’re not convinced that now is the time to “sell in May and go away.” As long as the foundations of global markets remain intact, there’s no reason to panic. And abandoning your long-term plan could come at a real cost.

To paraphrase The Clash—only in reverse: “If I stay there will be trouble, but if I go there will be double.”

Demystification room: Sell or Stay: a decision map

Market turbulence is part of every investor’s journey — and it stirs up emotions, even for the most experienced among us. Our level of comfort depends as much on the market environment as on our confidence in the choices we've made. Here’s a simple 6 question decision map to help you test that confidence and ground your decision to stay or sell in logic, not emotions.

Do you need the money or have your goals changed?

If yes: Consider securing what you'll need. Markets can stay volatile or take time to recover — and having cash on hand can prevent future stress or forced selling at an even worse moment.

If no: Go to the next question.

Are you losing sleep over the current market drop?

If yes: Time to reassess your risk tolerance! You've learned something important about yourself: your true appetite for risk. If your investments don't match it, a change may be needed. While it's usually wiser to adjust after the storm, not during the panic, your peace of mind still matters.

If no: Go to the next question.

Do you have a better opportunity with higher potential and similar or lower risk?

If yes: If yes, reallocating could make sense — but only if it aligns with your strategy, not just recent hype. Make sure it's a move toward something solid, not a reaction to fear or FOMO.

If no: Go to the next question.

Do you remember why you invested in the first place?

If no: If not, your decision may have been driven by hype or someone else's opinion rather than a clear investment thesis. Without a strong reason to stay invested, it's easier to panic. Know what you own — and what could go wrong.

If yes: Go to the next question.

Can you explain the upside (or are you crossing your fingers)?

If no: Maybe your original thesis was solid, but the facts have changed. If markets no longer support your view and you're now relying on hope alone, it might be time to reassess. Hope isn't a strategy — clarity on your risk-return potential is.

If yes: Go to the next question.

Is your portfolio diversified enough?

If no: Concentration is the fastest route to wealth — or to ruin. It all comes down to your ability to consistently pick winners. If you're not confident in that skill, a downturn is a chance to learn, not double down.

If yes: Stay the Course. Emotions will always surface during market downturns but if your answers point to a solid plan, no urgent need for cash, and no better alternative, then your decision not to sell is grounded, not passive.

SheWealth is coming to Geneva with special guest Belinda Bencic

After a succesfull launch in Zurich, SheWealth by Alpian is now arriving in Geneva.

Join us on May 15th at La Nautique for an exclusive evening dedicated to empowering women through open, modern, and judgment-free financial conversations.

Swiss tennis icon Belinda Bencic will join a panel of inspiring voices for an unforgettable night of insights, connection, and inspiration.

What to expect:

• 18:30 Welcome and apéro

• 19:00 Keynote by Atalanti Moquette

• 19:30 Panel discussion with Marion Fogli, Olga Miler & Belinda Bencic

• 20:00 Networking & flying dinner

• 22:00 End of the event

SheWealth is a community where women can confidently learn, share, and grow in all areas of wealth, from investing to alternative assets. The event is open to all curious minds and will be held in English. Registration is required, and spots are limited!