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Article written in collaboration with PLUS, a Swiss expert in accounting, tax, insurance and mortgages.
On Thursday 24 September, the Swiss National Bank once again held its policy rate at 0.00%. It is the fifth consecutive pause at this level. Behind the apparent stability, one issue is back in focus: inflation, pushed up again by rising oil prices.
What are the key takeaways from the September decision?
On the rate itself, nothing changes. Money in Switzerland still costs zero, a low policy rate among the major central banks, and financing conditions for homeowners and future buyers remain favourable.
The real signal is in the forecasts. The SNB notes that inflation has continued to rise since June, mainly because of higher energy prices, and has raised its inflation forecasts:
2026: 0.7% (0.6% in June)
2027: 0.8% (0.6% in June)
2028: 0.8% (0.7% in June)
These figures remain modest. But the direction has changed. For the first time in several quarters, the trend is no longer downward.
Why does oil carry so much weight?
Energy feeds straight into prices: fuel, heating oil, the transport of goods. Tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil higher, and that increase is gradually working its way into the cost of living in Switzerland.
Abroad, several central banks have already raised their rates. The SNB has chosen to wait, judging that medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly.
A rate rise in December or March: should you prepare?
For now, nothing makes it necessary. With inflation expected below 1%, Switzerland sits comfortably inside the SNB's price stability range of 0% to 2%.
One buffer has weakened, though. The franc has depreciated around 3% on a trade-weighted basis since June, which makes imports dearer and is one of the reasons the SNB raised its forecast. If oil keeps climbing and energy costs spread through the rest of the economy, the SNB could revise its position at its next assessments, in December or March.
A rate rise is not the central scenario. It is no longer one you can brush aside either.
What does this mean for your mortgage?
It depends on the financing you have chosen.
SARON mortgage. Its rate closely tracks the SNB policy rate. As long as that stays at 0.00%, you benefit from very low conditions. If it rises, the effect on your costs is immediate.
Fixed-rate mortgage. Its rate does not follow the SNB directly but the expectations of financial markets. Markets usually move before central banks do. If investors start to expect a rise, fixed rates can climb without any official decision.
What can you do now?
Check when your mortgages mature. A tranche expiring in the next 12 to 24 months is a reason to review your options today.
Stress-test your budget at a higher rate. If your costs went up, would you still be comfortable?
Look at how your tranches are split. Combining SARON and fixed rate lets you benefit from low rates while limiting your exposure.
Compare offers. Differences between lenders can be significant, especially in uncertain times.
How can you be confident in your decisions?
There is no single right strategy for everyone. The right choice depends on your situation, your risk tolerance and your plans. A specialist can help you see clearly, model different scenarios and find the financing that suits you.
Disclaimer: Investments involve risks, including the possible loss of invested capital. The value of investments can fluctuate and there is no guarantee of making profits or avoiding losses. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Potential investors should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Please read the full risk warnings and other relevant documents on our website before investing.
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